Hot temperature to heat up prices, reduce wheat yield: CRISIL

Chennai, Feb 22 The hot temperature if persists in March may not only reduce the wheat crop yield but also heat up the commodity prices, said CRISIL.

The rabi wheat crop yield will be impacted if the temperature is high in March. The crop yield will be on a par - or marginally lesser - than last year's low, said CRISIL in a report.

According to the report, in Uttar Pradesh, accounting for about 30 per cent of India's wheat production, the eastern part is expected to have relatively good yields on-year because of timely sowing after harvest of Kharif paddy.

On the other hand, western Uttar Pradesh could see a marginal decline due to late sowing - majorly in the sugarcane belt - if high temperatures persist in March.

In Punjab and Haryana (together accounting for about 25 per cent of India's wheat production), late-sown wheat is in the flowering stage, while the early sown lot is in the milking stage. High temperatures are detrimental to grain formation in both these stages, CRISIL said.

Similarly, in Madhya Pradesh (about 20 per cent of India's wheat production) late-sown wheat is at the milking stage.

According to CRISIL, Bihar (about 5 per cent of India's wheat production) saw early sowing and the crop there is at the grain formation/maturation stage. Therefore, it could be impacted relatively less.

Though such abiotic factors cannot be managed very effectively, farmers in Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh are said to have initiated spraying of crop nutrients such as bio-stimulants and specialty fertilisers, which should help them cope with the heat wave to some extent.

"While wheat prices have been on a downward trend in the past 20 days, if these high temperatures persist for the next 20 days, there could be a turnaround in prices," CRISIL said.